基于误差分析的雷达估测降水集成方法

大气与环境光学学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (5): 342-349.

基于误差分析的雷达估测降水集成方法

黄勇1，3, 叶金印2, 陈光舟2

（1 安徽省气象科学研究所, 安徽合肥 230031;
2 淮河流域气象中心, 安徽合肥 230031;
3 安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室, 安徽合肥 230031）

出版日期:2010-09-28 发布日期:2010-09-14
通讯作者: 黄勇（1980-），男，江西婺源人，工程师，主要从事大气探测研究. E-mail:hy121_2000@126.com
作者简介:黄勇（1980-），男，江西婺源人，工程师，主要从事大气探测研究.
基金资助:
国家自然基金项目(40675001，40905019)，中国气象局项目(CMATG2007Z11，CMATG2009MS07)资助

Consensus Methods of Estimating Rainfall Using Radar Based on Error Analysis

HUANG Yong1，3, YE Jin-yin2, CHEN Guang-zhou2

(1 Anhui Institute of Meteorology, Hefei 230031, China;
2 Huaihe Basin Meteorology Center, Hefei 230031, China;
3 Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing in Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China)

Published:2010-09-28 Online:2010-09-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以淮河流域为对象，在假设Z-R关系法、平均校准法、最优插值法、卡尔曼滤波和最优插值联合校准法以及卡尔曼滤波校准法等五种降水定量估测模式对于不同的降水类型而言能力有所差异的基础上，通过对前期降水定量估测结果误差变化的分析，以统计方差为判别标准来选取最佳的估算方法，进行多种估测结果的集成。对2007年7月上旬降水过程的应用结果分析表明：在降水强度较小的情况下，该方法是一种有效的集成方法，能够提高降水定量估测的能力；但是在降水强度较大的情况下，集成效果不佳。

关键词: 雷达估测降水, 集成, 误差分析

Abstract:

In the Huaihe Basin, the estimated rainfall values were consensused from the methods of Z-R relation, average calibration, optimum interpolation, Kalman filter and optimum interpolation and Kalman filter based on the analysis of error, under the supposal that those errors of five estimate values were different in different precipitation pattern. Results of the analysis of the rainfall cases in the early of July 2007 indicate that the method of consensus is useful and the ability of estimation is improved under the small value of rainfall, but under the heavy rainfall the result is unsatisfactory.

Key words: rainfall estimation of radar, consensus, error analysis

中图分类号:

P338.1

黄勇叶金印陈光舟. 基于误差分析的雷达估测降水集成方法[J]. 大气与环境光学学报, 2010, 5(5): 342-349.

HUANG Yong, XIE Jin-Yin, CHEN Guang-Zhou. Consensus Methods of Estimating Rainfall Using Radar Based on Error Analysis[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Environmental Optics, 2010, 5(5): 342-349.

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