合肥市霾日气象要素特征分析及预报方法研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用合肥国家气象观测站建站以来历史观测资料(1952$\sim$2016年)及2004$\sim$2016年逐日地面观测资料和高空观测资料,
分析了合肥霾日及相关气象要素特征;并结合2004$\sim$2016年合肥空气质量数据,对合肥市霾的预报方法进行了研究,
初步得到了霾日和霾日能见度的预报方程;最后利用2017年的气象资料和空气质量资料对预报结果进行了检验。结果表明:
合肥出现的霾以轻微霾和轻度霾为主;全市霾日逐月分布不均,其中1月和12月最多。霾的生消有比较明显的日变化,
霾出现的时间主要集中在每日的11:00$\sim$20:00。霾出现的有利气象条件是:风速$\leq$3 m/s,地面主导风向为
偏东风到偏南风,有负变压,正变温,相对湿度在50$\sim$70\%之间。低能见度的霾需要相对较高的相对湿度和负变压。
建立的霾日及霾日能见度方程预报准确度较高,可以为合肥市霾的预报预警提供一定参考。

关键词: 霾; , 能见度; , 气象要素, 预报

Abstract: Based on available observation data of Hefei Meteorological Station from 1952 to 2016 and the
daily ground and altitude observation data from 2004 to 2016, the characteristics of haze day
and related meteorological elements are analyzed. Then combining with the air pollution
data of Hefei from 2004 to 2016, the prediction equations of haze day and the visibility in
haze day are obtained preliminarily. Finally, the forecast results are verified by using the
meteorological and air quality data of 2017. The results show that haze in Hefei is dominated
by slight haze and mild haze, and the haze days distribute unevenly month by month, with the
most haze days in January and December. The growth and elimination of haze have diurnal changes.
Haze occurrs mainly at 11 to 20 o'clock every day. The favorable meteorological conditions for
haze day are as follows: wind speed is less than 3 m/s, the leading wind direction is easterly
or southerly, with negative pressure, positive temperature and relative humidity of 50$\sim$70\%.
Low visibility haze requires high relative humidity and negative pressure. It is shown that the
prediction equations have high accuracy, which can provide some reference for haze forecasting in Hefei.

Key words: haze, visibility, meteorological elements, forecast

中图分类号:

P427.1

魏春璇, 黄鹤, 翟振芳, 张平. 合肥市霾日气象要素特征分析及预报方法研究[J]. 大气与环境光学学报, 2019, 14(6): 419-430.

参考文献

[1]
China Meteorological Administration. Standard for surface meteorological observation [S]. Beijing:
China Meteorological Press, 2003: 23(in Chinese).

中国气象局.地面气象观测规范[S].北京:气象出版社, 2003: 23.
[2]
Bai Zhipeng, Cai Binbin, Dong Haiyan, et al. Adverse health effects caused by dust haze-a
review [J]. Environmental Pollution & Control, 2006, 28(3): 198-200(in Chinese).

白志鹏,蔡斌彬,董海燕,等.灰霾的健康效应[J]. 环境污染与防治, 2006, 28(3): 198-200.
[3]
Schichtel B A, Husara R B, Falke S R, et al. Haze trends over the United States, 1980-1995 [J].
Atmospheric Environment, 2001, 35(11): 5205-5210.

[4]
Hu Yadan, Zhou Zijiang. Climatic characteristics of haze in China [J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009, 35(7): 73-78(in Chinese).

胡亚旦,周自江.中国霾天气的气候特征分析[J].气象, 2009, 35(7): 73-78.
[5]
Song Lianchun, Gao Rong, Li Ying, et al. Analysis of China's haze days in winter half year and climatic
background during 1961-2012 [J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(5): 313-318(in Chinese).

宋连春,高荣,李莹等.1961-2012年中国冬半年霾日数的变化特征及气候成因分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(5): 313-318.

[6]
Lin Wei, MAO Yuqing, LIU Dongqing. The Characteristics and relationship with meteorological elements of
haze weather in nearly 3 years in Nanjing [J]. Journal of Nan yang Institute of Technology, 2012, 4(2):76-80(in Chinese).

林伟,毛宇清,刘冬晴.近3年南京霾天气特征及与气象要素的关系[J]. 南阳理工学院学报, 2012, 4(2): 76-80.
[7]
Yu jianwei, Chen qu, Yan wenlian, Analysis of haze meteorological factors and study on the forecast methods
in Nanjing [C]. The Fifth Session of the Yangtze River Delta meteorological science and Technology Forum, Nov. 2008.

俞剑蔚,陈曲,严文莲,南京霾日气象要素的特征分析及预报方法初探[C]. 第五届长三角气象科技论坛论文集, 2008年11月.

[8]
Zhang H, Shi C E, Qiu M Y, et al. Long-term variation of haze phenomena in Hefei and its impact
factors [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2010, 30(4): 714-721(in Chinese).

张浩,石春娥,邱明燕等.合肥市霾天气变化特征及其影响因子[J].环境科学学报, 2010, 30(4): 714-721.
[9]
Wu Dui. Discussion on difference between haze and fog and warning of ash haze weather [J].
Meteorological Monthly, 2005, 31(4): 3-7(in Chinese).

吴兑. 关于霾与雾的区别和灰霾天气预警的讨论[J].气象, 2005, 31(4): 3-7.
[10]
China Meteorological Administration. The Grade of Observation and Forecast of Haze [S]. China Meteorological
Industry Standard. Beijing: QX/T113-2010(in Chinese).

中国气象局.霾的观测和预报等级[S].中华人民共和国气象行业标准.北京: QX/T113-2010.