基于改进GSI 系统的气溶胶变分同化对WRF-Chem PM2.5 分析和预报的影响评估

大气与环境光学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (5): 321-333.

• 环境光学监测技术 • 下一篇

基于改进GSI 系统的气溶胶变分同化对WRF-Chem PM2.5 分析和预报的影响评估

陈杰1;2, 李正强1∗, 常文渊3∗, 张莹1, 魏瑗瑗1;2, 谢一凇1, 葛邦宇1;2, 张驰1;2

1 中国科学院空天信息创新研究院, 北京 100101; 2 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049; 3 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029

收稿日期:2020-03-04 修回日期:2020-03-13 出版日期:2020-09-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
通讯作者: 李正强：E-mail: lizq@radi.ac.cn E-mail:lizq@radi.ac.cn
作者简介:陈杰 ( 1995 -), 男, 江苏淮安人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事气溶胶卫星遥感产品同化等方面的研究。 E-mail: chenjie17@mails.ucas.edu.cn
基金资助:
Supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (国家重点研发计划, 2016YFE0201400), National Natural Science Foundation of China (国家自然科学基金, 41925019, 41671367).

Impact Evaluation of Aerosol Variational Assimilation Based on Improved GSI System on WRF-Chem PM2.5 Analysis and Forecast

CHEN Jie1;2, LI Zhengqiang1∗, CHANG Wenyuan3∗, ZHANG Ying1, WEI Yuanyuan1;2, XIE Yisong1, GE Bangyu1;2, ZHANG Chi1;2

1 Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3 State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2020-03-04 Revised:2020-03-13 Published:2020-09-28 Online:2020-09-28
Supported by:

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于改进的三维变分同化系统对地面细颗粒物浓度 (PM2.5) 与卫星气溶胶光学厚度 (AOD) 进行同化, 评估了同化分析场对 PM2.5 预报的改善效果。研究选定一次持续污染过程, 分别对地面 PM2.5 和 AOD 观测数据进行各自单独同化和两者同时同化。结果表明, 相比于单独同化 PM2.5 , 单独同化 AOD 对 AOD 分析场的精度提升更为有效, 但对 PM2.5 分析场的准确性显著降低。而同时同化 PM2.5 与 AOD 观测时, 分析场对气溶胶的光学-物理特性模拟达到最好的综合效果。同化试验可有效降低模式漏报率, 对于中轻度污染情况, 同化数据的选择对预报影响并不显著; 然而重度污染时, 同时同化近地面 PM2.5 和整层 AOD 的综合预报效果最优。

关键词: 同化, PM2.5 预报, 气溶胶光学厚度, GSI

Abstract: Based on the improved three-dimensional variational assimilation system, the assimilation of ground fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) is conducted and the effect of analysis field assimilation on the PM2.5 forecast improvement is evaluated. A continuous pollution process is selected in this study, and the ground PM2.5 and AOD observation data are assimilated individually and simultaneously. The results show that compared with PM2.5 individual assimilation, AOD assimilation alone is more effective in improving the accuracy of the AOD analysis field, but the accuracy of the PM2.5 analysis field is reduced obviously. While simultaneous assimilation of PM2.5 and AOD makes the simulation of aerosol optical-physical properties achieve the best overall effect. Moreover, assimilation tests can effectively reduce the missing report rate. For the case of mild and moderate pollution, the choice of assimilation PM2.5 or AOD does not have a significant impact on the forecast. However, in the case of severe pollution, the comprehensive forecast of PM2.5 is the best when the ground PM2.5 and the whole layer AOD are assimilated simultaneously.

Key words: assimilation, PM2.5 forecast, aerosol optical depth, GSI

中图分类号:

P426

陈杰, 李正强∗, 常文渊∗, 张莹, 魏瑗瑗, 谢一凇, 葛邦宇, 张驰, . 基于改进GSI 系统的气溶胶变分同化对WRF-Chem PM2.5 分析和预报的影响评估[J]. 大气与环境光学学报, 2020, 15(5): 321-333.

CHEN Jie, LI Zhengqiang∗, CHANG Wenyuan∗, ZHANG Ying, WEI Yuanyuan, XIE Yisong, GE Bangyu, ZHANG Chi, . Impact Evaluation of Aerosol Variational Assimilation Based on Improved GSI System on WRF-Chem PM2.5 Analysis and Forecast[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Environmental Optics, 2020, 15(5): 321-333.

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基于改进GSI 系统的气溶胶变分同化对WRF-Chem PM2.5 分析和预报的影响评估

Impact Evaluation of Aerosol Variational Assimilation Based on Improved GSI System on WRF-Chem PM2.5 Analysis and Forecast

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