Evolution and Prediction of Thermal Environment Pattern in Nanjing Based on CA-Markov Model

Abstract

Abstract: Based on Landsat5 TM and Landsat8 OLI/TIRS data, the land surface temperature of Nanjing city is
retrieved by radiative transfer equation, and the thermal landscape pattern evolution is analyzed
by landscape pattern indices. Then the thermal environment change of Nanjing in 2024
is predicted by CA-Markov model. The results show that, from 2000 to 2017, the area of high
temperature zone in Nanjing increased by 456.55 km² and 149.75%, and the area of mid-temperature
zone, low and sub-low temperature zone decreased continuously. On the patch-class level, the
dominance of high temperature patch in thermal landscape pattern was rising rapidly. From 2000
to 2010, the fragmentation and complexity of the high temperature patch decreased, which is
contrary to that from 2010 to 2017. On the landscape level, the fragmentation degree of
thermal landscape pattern in Nanjing decreased, the area of various patches tended to be
uniform, and the degree of aggregation among patches increased. It is shown that the
simulation result of thermal environment of Nanjing in 2017 based on CA-Markov model
has a high simulation accuracy, with the average error of each heat island type less than
6% and the Kappa index of the model of 78.36%. The prediction results of thermal environment
of Nanjing in 2024 show that the area of high temperature and sub-high temperature zone will
increase by 94.96 km² and 126.91 km² respectively, and the area of mid-temperature zone,
low and sub-low temperature zone will continue to decrease.

Key words: heat island effect, thermal environment, CA-Markov model, Nanjing

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