基于VAR模型的PM2.5与其它空气污染物的动态关系研究分析

大气与环境光学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 91-102.

基于VAR模型的PM2.5与其它空气污染物的动态关系研究分析

汪官镇1, 刘金培1,*, 陈华友2, 肖鹏1, 蒋一聪1, 杜博文2

(1. 安徽大学商学院，安徽合肥 230601;
2. 安徽大学数学科学学院，安徽合肥 230601)

收稿日期:2015-04-15 修回日期:2015-05-20 出版日期:2016-03-28 发布日期:2016-03-18
通讯作者: 刘金培（1984-），男，汉族，山东滨州人，博士，副教授，主要从事技术经济方面的研究。 E-mail:liujinpei2012@163.com
作者简介:汪官镇（1993-），男，汉族，安徽池州人，主要从事大气环境治理方面的研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(11426033, 71371011, 71301001)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(13YJC630092)、安徽省自然科学基金(1508085QG149)、大学生创新训练项目（201410357312）资助

Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship Between PM2.5 and Other Air Pollutants Based on VAR Model

WANG Guanzhen1, LIU Jinpei1,*, CHEN Huayou2, XIAO Peng1, JIANG Yicong1, DU Bowen2

(1 School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui, 230601, China;
2 School of Mathematical Science, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui, 230601, China)

Received:2015-04-15 Revised:2015-05-20 Published:2016-03-28 Online:2016-03-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过建立向量自回归（VAR）模型，综合运用格兰杰因果关系检验、广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法，分析PM2.5与其它空气污染物的动态关系，探讨其它空气污染物对PM2.5的影响，利用西安市2013年1月1日-2014年12月31日有关环境空气质量的数据进行了研究。结果表明：PM2.5与其它空气污染物所构成的空气质量系统是稳定的，二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳浓度值的增加会引起PM2.5浓度值持续较长时间的增加，其中二氧化硫对PM2.5影响作用最大；臭氧浓度值的增加则会使PM2.5浓度值降低。

关键词: PM2.5, VAR模型, 广义脉冲响应, 空气污染治理

Abstract:

The dynamic relationship between the PM2.5 and other kinds of air pollutants was analyzed based on vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. Methods of Granger causality test, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were used, based on the daily data of the ambient air quality from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014 in Xi'an city to investigate the effect of other kinds of air pollutants on the PM2.5. The results show that the air quality system composed of PM2.5 and other kinds of air pollutants is stable, the increase of sulfur dioxide concentration, nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide will lead to the increase of PM2.5 concentration. Sulfur dioxide has the greatest effect on PM2.5 and the increase of ozone concentration will make PM2.5 concentration decrease.

Key words: PM2.5, VAR model, generalized impulse response, air pollution governance

中图分类号:

PM2.5

汪官镇刘金培陈华友肖鹏蒋一聪杜博文. 基于VAR模型的PM2.5与其它空气污染物的动态关系研究分析[J]. 大气与环境光学学报, 2016, 11(2): 91-102.

WANG Guan-Zhen, LIU Jin-Pei, CHEN Hua-You, XIAO Peng, JIANG Yi-Cong, DU Bo-Wen. Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship Between PM2.5 and Other Air Pollutants Based on VAR Model[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Environmental Optics, 2016, 11(2): 91-102.

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